The Future of Solar Energy: Outlook to 2030 and 2035

Solar keeps growing, but the steep cost drops of the last decade are slowing. This page gathers the published numbers from the IEA, IRENA, the US National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR, formerly NREL) and other named sources, with the source beside each figure. Forecasts can be wrong, so the text says when a number is a projection.

Last updated: November 2026

In short:

• Capacity: the IEA expects about 4,600 GW of new renewable power by 2030, with solar PV close to 80% of it.
• Cost: IRENA projects solar installed costs about 40% lower over the next decade, a slower fall than the last one.
• Technology: perovskite-silicon tandem cells have reached 35.2% in the lab, but most panels sold today are standard silicon.

Key Predictions at a Glance

Sources: IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, executive summary (July 2026); IEA, Renewables 2025, executive summary; NLR Best Research-Cell Efficiency data table. “Not stated” means the source does not give a figure.

Latest Updates: Solar in 2025 and 2026

Solar kept growing in 2025. Two sources count the new capacity differently, so the numbers differ:

• The IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA PVPS) estimates that 698 GW of new PV was installed in 2025. Global PV capacity rose to nearly 3 TW, up from 2.3 TW in 2024. China made up around 60% of new installs. PV supplied more than 10% of global electricity demand (Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2026, April 2026).
• IRENA says global renewable capacity additions passed 690 GW in 2025, about one-fifth more than in 2024. Solar PV added more than 500 GW of that. China had close to two-thirds of new solar (IRENA, July 2026).

Use the source’s own number when you quote it, and name the source.

In Europe, the European Commission reports that 27.5% of EU renewable electricity came from solar in 2025. In June 2025, solar was the largest single source of EU electricity, at 22% (European Commission, solar energy, citing Eurostat).

Will Solar Get Cheaper?

Solar will probably get cheaper, but the big drops are behind us. IRENA’s July 2026 report gives these facts:

• The global average cost of solar electricity (LCOE) was USD 44 per MWh in 2025. That is unchanged from 2024 and 89% lower than in 2010.
• Solar installed costs fell about 6% in 2025, yet LCOE did not move. IRENA says a higher cost of capital cancelled out the cheaper equipment.
• Module prices fell by roughly two-thirds between 2022 and 2024. IRENA links this to a large build-up of factory capacity in China and thin margins.
• That may be changing. China removed the VAT rebate on exports of certain solar PV products in April 2026. IRENA says commodity and component prices are rising. That pushes installed costs up through 2026.
• Over the next decade, IRENA projects installed costs for solar PV to fall by around 40%. That is about half of the fall since 2010. IRENA calls its figures model-based and indicative, not predictions.

The IEA adds the view from the factories. It says solar PV prices in China are down over 60% since 2023. That cut the margins of the largest makers to about -10%. Their losses since the start of 2024 reached almost USD 5 billion (IEA Renewables 2025).

For current module prices, see our module price forecast. For costs by country, see solar LCOE by country.

How Fast Are Solar Panels Improving?

Perovskite-silicon tandem cells stack a perovskite layer on a silicon cell. IRENA says perovskite solar cells are approaching commercial deployment.

The NLR research-cell table lists these perovskite-silicon cells of about 1 cm². The list shows the main record steps, not every entry:

Source: NLR cell efficiency data table. The table’s uncertainty column lists 0.9 to 3.3 for these entries, so the small gaps between records are within the margin of error.

Modules score lower than small lab cells. Fraunhofer ISE reported a 25% efficient module on 1.68 m², with 421 W of output, built with Oxford PV tandem cells (31 January 2024, Fraunhofer ISE). Oxford PV now lists its tandem modules at 25% efficiency. Its Gen 2 modules carry a 10-year product and performance warranty. It targets 27% by 2027, 30% by 2030 and 35% by 2035 (Oxford PV). These are company targets, not independent forecasts.

For projects you design today, check the datasheet and warranty of any tandem module. Read the full guide to perovskite-silicon tandem cells or the perovskite hub for the stability evidence.

Solar Plus Storage: What the Data Says

Batteries are moving from an add-on to a normal part of solar projects. IRENA reports that in 2025, around one quarter of newly commissioned utility-scale solar capacity was paired with battery storage. Its numbers for batteries:

• The installed cost of four-hour utility-scale batteries fell by close to 30% in 2025, to around USD 140 per kWh. In China it fell below USD 70 per kWh.
• The firm LCOE of solar-plus-battery systems at 95% reliability fell from over USD 100 per MWh in 2020 to below USD 85 per MWh in 2025 at high-quality sites. IRENA projects further falls of around 30% by 2030 and 40% by 2035.

BloombergNEF reports that average lithium-ion battery pack prices fell 8% in 2025 to USD 108 per kWh. Stationary storage packs fell 45% to USD 70 per kWh (BloombergNEF press release, 9 December 2025). A pack price is not an installed price.

Which Tools Size Solar Plus Storage?

Which tool is best depends on your projects. Use these checks instead of a ranking:

• Does it use hourly or sub-hourly load data, not only monthly bills?
• Does it model your tariff, including time-of-use and demand charges?
• Does it let you set how the battery charges and discharges?
• Does it show savings, cost and payback together?

The free System Advisor Model (SAM) from the National Laboratory of the Rockies models batteries. It has automatic dispatch options for peak shaving or time-varying prices, and manual dispatch where you give a charge and discharge schedule (SAM battery storage). For other options, read our battery storage design software guide. To size a battery for a home, use the battery size calculator.

SurgePV is software for roof modeling, layout, shading analysis, yield and financial modeling, electrical workflow support, bill-of-materials output and proposals. Confirm the exact scope, including storage, in a demo.

What Does Policy Mean for the Next Five Years?

The IEA’s Renewables 2025 report cuts across the main markets:

• United States. The IEA cut its US forecast by almost 50%. It points to the earlier end of federal tax credits and new import limits. It also points to limits on permits for solar and onshore wind on federal land. For homeowners, the IRS says the 30% Residential Clean Energy Credit is not available for property placed in service after 31 December 2025 (IRS).
• European Union. The IEA raised its EU forecast slightly, because utility-scale solar installs are higher than expected. It credits strong demand for corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) in Germany, Spain, Italy and Poland. The EU’s solar strategy aims for at least 600 GW by 2030, in alternating current. The EU passed its 320 GW goal for 2025 (European Commission). For one country’s plans, read about France’s green energy transition.
• India. The IEA expects India to become the second-largest growth market for renewables. It expects capacity to rise 2.5 times in five years.
• China. The IEA says China makes up nearly 60% of global renewable capacity growth. The shift from fixed tariffs to auctions is lowering growth expectations.

The IEA also warns about the grid. It says wind and solar will generate almost 30% of global electricity by 2030, double today’s level. It lists rising curtailment (switching off output) and more hours with negative power prices. It says the grid will need storage, flexible demand and dispatchable plants.

What This Means for Installers and Designers

Three points follow from the data:

1. Do not wait for much cheaper equipment. IRENA expects costs to keep falling, but far more slowly, and prices may rise in 2026.
2. Plan for storage and the grid. More projects pair solar with batteries, and grid limits are growing. Collect load and tariff data early.
3. Check new technology claims. Tandem cells are real but still in early sales. Read the datasheet and the warranty.

SurgePV’s solar design software, shading analysis and solar proposals support the design and proposal steps. For electric vehicle charging with solar, read the solar EV charging integration guide.

More Topics

Related guides on this site cover agrivoltaics design, vehicle-to-grid and solar design, solar hydrogen production and bifacial panels. This page does not repeat their data.

If you design or sell solar systems, the next step is a plan for your own pipeline. Book a SurgePV demo to see design, shading, yield and proposal work on your own project.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the future of solar energy by 2030?

The IEA’s Renewables 2025 report expects global renewable power capacity to double by 2030, an increase of about 4,600 GW. Solar PV makes up almost 80% of that increase. The IEA also expects wind and solar to generate almost 30% of global electricity by 2030, which is double today’s level.

Will solar get cheaper?

Yes, but more slowly. IRENA reports that solar’s global average cost of electricity was USD 44 per MWh in 2025, unchanged from 2024 and 89% below 2010. IRENA projects that total installed costs for solar PV fall by about 40% over the next decade. It calls this figure model-based and indicative, not a prediction.

What is the future of solar panels?

Perovskite-silicon tandem panels are the main new technology. The best research cell reached 35.2% (LONGi, measured February 2026, NLR table). Oxford PV lists tandem modules at 25% efficiency, with a 10-year warranty on its Gen 2 modules, and targets 27% by 2027. Most solar sold today is still standard silicon.

What is solar LCOE in 2026?

Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is the average cost of each unit of power over a plant’s life. IRENA’s latest figure is USD 44 per MWh for solar PV worldwide in 2025. By country, it ranges from USD 35 per MWh in India to USD 65 per MWh in Germany among major markets. China is at USD 36 per MWh.

What design tools handle solar-plus-storage sizing?

Look for a tool that models hourly load, tariffs and battery dispatch rules, and that shows costs and savings together. The free System Advisor Model from the US National Laboratory of the Rockies models batteries with automatic and manual dispatch. Compare any tool on the data it needs and the results it shows.