Solar Supply Chain Trends 2026: Module Prices, Tariffs

Solar buyers face two things at once in 2026: module prices that have turned up, and new US trade rules that start in December. This guide lays out the price data, factory capacity, trade rules and shipping costs, each with its source and date.

Last updated: November 2026. Sources were read on 28 October 2026.

Most of the numbers below come from the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) Spring 2026 Solar and Storage Industry Update. NLR is the National Laboratory of the Rockies, formerly NREL. Its price data comes from the BloombergNEF Solar Spot Index. Trade rules come from the White House text and from press reports, which are labeled “(press report)”.

Polysilicon is the raw material for solar cells. Makers melt it into ingots, slice them into wafers, turn wafers into cells, and join cells into modules (the panels you install). Read more in the polysilicon glossary entry.

What are the key numbers for 2026?

Wdc means watts of direct current. c-Si means crystalline silicon, the main solar cell material.

What were polysilicon and module prices over time?

The table shows the price points that NLR prints in the text of its quarterly updates. NLR shows wafer and cell prices only in charts, so the table leaves them out.

NLR prints $6.24 per kg in its Spring 2025 edition and $6.23 per kg in its Summer 2025 edition for the same quarter start. Both are shown. NLR says polysilicon, wafer and cell prices rose 30% to 44% during 2025, and that module prices ended 2025 where they began.

Who makes the modules?

This table is NLR’s top 10 by 2025 shipments. It excludes inventory sales and outsourcing.

The top 10 shipped 581.3 ÷ 885.5 = 65.6% of the total. NLR’s text gives about 856 GW for 2025 global shipments, and the table total is 885.5 GW. NLR does not explain the gap, so both are shown.

NLR also reports that 98% of 2025 shipments were mono c-Si. N-type cells were 73%. TOPCon (tunnel oxide passivated contact, a cell design) was 60%. About 79% of shipments came from China. India moved to fourth place by shipments, behind China, Malaysia and Vietnam.

How good are the modules?

NLR reports that the average efficiency of installed c-Si modules rose from 14.8% in 2010 to 21.3% in 2025. This covers distributed PV systems in California and New York. For CdTe thin-film modules in US utility-scale projects, it rose from 11.0% to 18.8%. First Solar’s average CdTe efficiency went from 18.5% in 2024 to 18.8% in 2025. NLR says this is mostly because Series 7 modules rose from 38% to 58% of its output. Perovskite shipments grew 130% from 2024, to 157 MW.

NLR also shows the solar experience curve. For every doubling of cumulative module shipments from 1976 to 2024, the average module price fell by about 23%. NLR adds that oversupply and undersupply have pushed prices off that curve at times.

Where is the factory capacity?

China holds the largest share of factory capacity, and its share is highest at the start of the chain. NLR, citing BloombergNEF, says China held 98% of polysilicon capacity and 77% of c-Si module capacity at the end of 2025. More than 100 GW of c-Si capacity was under construction at that time, mostly in China.

NLR does not print China’s share for wafers or cells in its text.

Cell capacity is thin in the US. NLR’s Spring 2026 update estimates US cell capacity at about 2 GWdc at the end of Q4 2025. Its Winter 2026 update said 3 GWdc at the end of Q3 2025. The US made about 31.3 GWdc of panels in 2025, up 59%. Wood Mackenzie and SEIA put US module capacity at roughly 66 GWdc in their Q3 2026 report, with about 1 GWdc added in Q2 2026.

US module prices differ by source. NLR gives about $0.27 per Wdc at the end of May 2026. Wood Mackenzie reports Q2 2026 averages of $0.37 per Wdc for distributed projects, down 16% year on year. For utility projects it reports $0.33 per Wdc, down 2%. Wood Mackenzie says tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were invalidated at the start of 2026. NLR also reports that US module imports in Q1 2026 were only 4.4 GWdc. Its summary says that is down 34% from Q4 2025 and the lowest since the first half of 2022. Its import slide says down 51% and the lowest since Q2 2019. Both are printed in the same report.

What is happening at US factories and ports?

NLR’s May 2026 factory notes come from US Department of Energy tracking of public announcements as of 8 May 2026. They are announcements and plans, not output.

On the import side, NLR reports that the US imported 33.2 GWdc of modules in 2025 (down 40%) and 21.1 GWdc of cells (up 50%). Indonesia and Laos supplied about half of the c-Si module and cell imports in 2025. In Q1 2026, the Philippines, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Kenya together supplied 39% of US c-Si module imports (77% in March).

Why did prices move in 2026?

• Government action in China. NLR attributes the 2025 rise in polysilicon, wafer and cell prices to Chinese government intervention and rising silver prices. In early January 2026, China announced it would remove the export tax rebate for solar products on 1 April 2026.
• Oversupply upstream. PV Magazine, quoted by NLR, links low polysilicon prices in 2026 to oversupply. It also names weak demand after the export rebate ended.
• Silver. PV Magazine reported in January 2026 that silver paste was 30% of total cell cost, more than polysilicon or any other part. BloombergNEF now estimates silver at 20% to 30% of module cost. NLR says silver in May 2026 was still trading “1.25x higher” than a year before.
• Module price rise. PV Magazine named three causes. Demand for energy independence was strong. Chinese makers cut capacity, which tightened supply. European buyers moved to just-in-time delivery, so their stockpiles fell.
• Thin margins. Margins improved in Q1 2026, but most module, cell and wafer makers were still losing money. First Solar was the exception, with a 47% gross margin.

What are the new US trade rules?

Section 232 on polysilicon. On 6 August 2026 the White House issued the proclamation Adjusting Imports of Polysilicon and its Derivatives into the United States. It starts for goods entered on or after 12:01 a.m. Eastern on 4 December 2026.

• Importers can document that the first arm’s-length US sale will be at or above the MIP. Or they can show a sale under a contract signed before the proclamation.
• Without that paper, the import faces a tariff equal to the MIP. With the paper, if the entered value is below the MIP, the tariff equals the gap.
• A 15% duty also applies to polysilicon ingots and the derivatives in the proclamation’s annexes. For products of the EU, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Switzerland and Liechtenstein, the 232 duty plus the normal duty is set to equal 15%. The UK rate is 10%.
• The proclamation says these tariffs replace the narrower safeguard tariff on solar cells and modules that ended in February 2026.

Antidumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) are US import duties. Antidumping duties apply to goods sold in the US at less than fair value. Countervailing duties offset foreign government help to producers that is deemed unfair. NLR reports that Commerce issued preliminary countervailing duty decisions on 24 February 2026 for solar cells and modules from Laos, Indonesia and India. On 11 September 2026, pv magazine USA reported that Commerce had finalized the duties (press report).

Another press report says the US International Trade Commission voted on 14 October 2026 that these imports injure US makers. It adds that Commerce is expected to issue the orders in early November 2026 (press report, GCN).

Other US rules. Wood Mackenzie and SEIA report that Treasury’s February 2026 interim guidance on foreign entity of concern (FEOC) rules left some definitions open. Treasury must publish more safe-harbor tables by 31 December 2026. They also report that the FCC added foreign-produced power inverters to its Covered List on 28 July 2026. A White House order of 26 August 2026 limits imports of power generation equipment from Covered Foreign Entities, which includes China. Read the SEIA Q3 2026 report page for details.

Forced-labour rules. In the US, CBP enforces a rebuttable presumption. Goods made wholly or partly in Xinjiang, or by entities on the UFLPA Entity List, cannot enter the country. The importer must prove otherwise with clear and convincing evidence. See the CBP UFLPA page. In the EU, Regulation (EU) 2024/3015 bans products made with forced labour from the EU market and applies from 14 December 2027.

What about inverters and batteries?

Wood Mackenzie forecast in December 2025 that the global solar inverter market would fall to 577 GWac in 2025, down 2%. It forecast a further fall to 523 GWac in 2026, down 9%. This is from pv magazine (press report). It expects China at 304 GWac in 2025. It expects Europe at 83 GWac in 2025, down from 88. It expects a 22% drop in the US in 2026 as IRA tax credits phase out. Wood Mackenzie expects the market to recover and pass its 2024 size by the early 2030s.

NLR says residential inverter companies kept operating at a loss in Q1 2026. Demand was lower than in 2023. Its chart covers Enphase, SMA and SolarEdge. Enphase and SolarEdge have moved to a domestic US supply chain, and SolarEdge reported that 90% of its products are made in the United States. Tracker makers’ margins rose in Q1 2026. They still face supply chain problems from rules and demand uncertainty. Its chart covers Array Technologies, FTC Solar and NexPower.

NLR reports that stationary storage battery pack prices fell 84% from 2016 to 2025, and 45% between 2024 and 2025, to $70 per kWh.

What does shipping cost?

The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) showed a global index of $3,560.20 for a 40-foot container on 28 October 2026. The index averages many lanes and changes daily. Use the lane you ship on. In its US report, Wood Mackenzie says logistics costs have increased by over 15% averaged across all segments. It ties this to oil and gas prices. It says they are up about 50% year on year since the start of the Middle East conflict.

Example with assumed inputs: a container holds 620 modules of 600 W each. That is 620 × 600 = 372,000 W. Freight of $3,560.20 ÷ 372,000 W = $0.0096 per watt. Your module count and lane rate will differ.

Procurement checklist for installers and developers

Use this list before you place a module or inverter order.

• Ask for the origin of the cells and wafers, not only the country of final assembly. US antidumping and countervailing cases cover Laos, Indonesia and India, and the Section 232 minimum import prices start on 4 December 2026.
• Ask if the price is fixed or tied to an index. Module prices rose 26% in the first five months of 2026.
• Ask how a silver price move changes your price. BloombergNEF puts silver at 20% to 30% of module cost.
• Ask for forced-labour paperwork now, for US imports under the UFLPA and for EU sales from 14 December 2027.
• Check the supplier’s finances and payment terms. Most makers were still losing money in Q1 2026.
• For US projects, check the status of each inverter model under the FCC Covered List.
• Re-run your quote on current prices before you sign. See the module price forecast for the longer view.

SurgePV supports bill-of-materials output and proposals. Book a demo to see how your module and equipment choices flow into a quote. For wider context, see solar manufacturing reshoring, the global solar market forecast and the commercial solar market outlook. For cell types, read n-type vs p-type solar cells.

Key takeaways and dates to watch

• Module prices are rising while polysilicon and wafer prices fall. Check the date on any price you see.
• Most makers still lose money, so check your supplier’s finances.
• Early November 2026: Commerce is expected to issue AD/CVD orders on India, Indonesia and Laos (press report).
• 4 December 2026: US minimum import prices and the 15% duty start.
• 31 December 2026: Treasury’s due date for more FEOC safe-harbor tables.
• 14 December 2027: the EU Forced Labour Regulation applies.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the biggest solar supply chain trends in 2026?

Prices rose at the module and cell end while polysilicon and wafer prices fell, new US trade rules were announced, and most makers still lost money. NLR reports global module prices of $0.11 per watt in May 2026, up 26% in five months, and polysilicon and wafer prices down about 26%. The US Section 232 proclamation of 6 August 2026 adds minimum import prices and a 15% duty from 4 December 2026.

Will there be a solar panel shortage in 2026?

NLR’s spring 2026 update describes oversupply and low global prices, and says most module, cell and wafer makers still operated at a loss in the first quarter. The tight spots are policy and price, not a lack of factories. Global capacity at the end of 2025 was between 1.35 and 1.67 TW, and 2025 installs were between 607 and 698 GWdc.

How much does it cost to ship a container of solar modules in 2026?

The Freightos Baltic Index showed $3,560.20 for a 40-foot container on 28 October 2026. That is a global index across all lanes, so use the quote for your own lane. If a container holds 620 modules of 600 W (an assumption), the freight is about $0.0096 per watt.

Are solar module prices going up or down in 2026?

Up, at the global level. NLR reports that global module prices rose 26% in the first five months of 2026 to $0.11 per watt. Polysilicon and wafer prices fell about 26% in the same period. US module prices stayed around $0.27 per watt at the end of May 2026.

What is happening with US solar manufacturing in 2026?

The US made about 31.3 GWdc of panels in 2025, up 59%. Wood Mackenzie and SEIA put US module capacity at roughly 66 GWdc in September 2026, with about 1 GWdc added in Q2 2026. NLR puts US cell capacity at about 2 GWdc at the end of 2025.

What does the US Section 232 proclamation do to solar imports?

It sets minimum import prices of $21 per kg for polysilicon, $100 per kg for ingots and wafers, $0.22 per watt for cells and $0.38 per watt for modules. It also adds a 15% duty on polysilicon derivatives. Both start for goods entered on or after 4 December 2026.

Who are the biggest solar module makers?

In 2025 the five largest by shipments were LONGi (87.3 GW), Jinko Solar (82.6 GW), Tongwei (77.5 GW), JA Solar (67.2 GW) and Trina Solar (57.4 GW), per NLR using SPV Market Research data. About 79% of 2025 shipments came from China.

Sources

• NLR Spring 2026 Solar and Storage Industry Update, read 28 October 2026.
• NLR Winter 2026 Solar and Storage Industry Update, and the Winter 2025, Spring 2025 and Summer 2025 editions, for the price points in the table.
• White House proclamation, 6 August 2026.
• SEIA and Wood Mackenzie, US Solar Market Insight Q3 2026, read 28 October 2026.
• CBP UFLPA page and Regulation (EU) 2024/3015.
• Freightos Baltic Index, read 28 October 2026.
• Press reports: pv magazine USA, 11 September 2026, GCN and pv magazine, 16 December 2025.