Grid Export Limitation Rules by Country: 2026 Caps

Last updated: November 2026

SurgePV publishes this post and sells solar design software.

Grid export limitation rules decide how much solar electricity a system may send back to the network, and the answer changes sharply from country to country. Some markets run fixed caps, some pay little or nothing for midday exports, and some let the network operator switch your output down. This guide covers the main rules in about a dozen markets, what each means for system design, and where to check the current rule before you size a project.

The rules below change often. Each section names the source or says where the evidence is thin, and where sources disagree this guide says so instead of picking one.

Understanding Grid Export Limitation: Three Policy Types

Before comparing countries, it helps to separate three distinct approaches to grid export limitation. They differ in mechanism, financial impact, and inverter requirements.

Zero export (anti-reverse-flow): The inverter is configured, or required, to never push electricity to the grid. Output is throttled in real time to match site consumption. Any excess is wasted or stored in batteries. It appears where networks do not accept export, as with large C&I systems under China’s 2025 distributed PV measures, and it is also chosen voluntarily where feed-in rates are negligible or interconnection approval is slow.

Fixed export cap: The system can export, but only up to a fixed threshold, typically expressed as kW per phase or as a percentage of inverter capacity. Australia’s 5 kW, Germany’s 60–70%, and the UK’s 3.68 kW (G98 baseline) fall here. Systems exceeding the cap are automatically curtailed by the export limiter or smart inverter logic.

Dynamic (flexible) export: The system exports up to a variable ceiling that changes in real time based on grid conditions. South Australia runs this statewide, and Western Australia has introduced remote management options for new systems from May 2026. In South Australia the ceiling can fall to a low fallback or 0 kW during grid stress and rise to 10 kW per phase when the grid has spare capacity. This approach requires a bidirectional communication protocol (CSIP-AUS in Australia’s case) between the inverter and the network operator.

Knowing which type applies in your market shapes inverter selection, system sizing, battery strategy, and the financial inputs in customer-ready solar proposals.

Global Overview: Export Limitation Rules at a Glance

The table summarizes the rules covered in this guide. The last column says how firm the evidence is, because several rules are changing and some sources disagree.

Australia: State-by-State Export Limits and the Move to Flexible Export

Australia has no single federal export limit. Each distribution network service provider (DNSP) sets its own rules within the National Electricity Rules, so the right answer is always a lookup by postcode and network.

The Fixed Export Limit

Many residential connections have been given a fixed export limit in the region of 5 kW per phase, but the figure differs by network and has been changing as DNSPs adopt flexible schemes. A 10 kW system on a single-phase connection can produce 10 kW on a clear day but may export no more than the cap. The excess must be consumed on site, stored, or curtailed.

How much energy that costs depends on the site. The SolarQuotes export-limiting analysis modeled a 10 kW system with a 5 kW export limit and found worst-case annual losses of 14% in Adelaide, 14% in Canberra and 13% in Sydney. Those are worst-case figures for north-facing panels with no daytime household use, and the author notes real losses are likely lower.

To turn a loss percentage into money, multiply the lost kWh by the local feed-in rate for that site. Do not use a single dollar figure across states.

South Australia: Statewide Flexible Exports

SA Power Networks extended Flexible Exports to all customers in South Australia from 17 July 2025, according to its own SA Power Networks announcement on Flexible Exports. Under the scheme:

• Customers can choose a flexible export limit of up to 10 kW per phase when the network has room
• The limit falls during congestion, with a low fallback (the announcement cites 1.5 kW per phase, and 0 kW in some constrained cases)
• The inverter must be CSIP-AUS capable and internet connected. CSIP-AUS is the Common Smart Inverter Profile for Australia, an implementation of IEEE 2030.5
• SA Power Networks reported that more than 88% of eligible customers chose Flexible Exports

The South Australian Government has separate rules that require newly installed exporting systems to be dynamic-export capable, so check the current requirement for your date of installation, and treat opting in to a flexible connection as the customer’s choice.

Western Australia: New Rules From May 2026

Installer and advocacy sources report that, from 1 May 2026, new and upgraded rooftop systems on Western Power’s network must either accept remote management (emergency solar management) or take a fixed export limit that sources put at 1.5 kW. Systems that accept remote management can export more and can join schemes such as the Distributed Energy Buyback Scheme and virtual power plants. Sources disagree on the exact export ceilings, and most are not Western Power’s own documents, so read Western Power’s connection technical requirements before you quote a number.

Systems outside the Western Power network, for example on Horizon Power’s isolated grids, can face tighter conditions again. Use a postcode lookup before you finalize system size and export assumptions on any Australian project (our Australian export limits guide lists the networks), and pair it with solar shadow analysis software so shading and export losses are modeled together.

Germany: 70% Rule History and the 2025 Solarspitzengesetz

Germany has operated with a feed-in limitation regime since 2012, but February 2025 brought the most significant change since the original rule was introduced.

The Legacy 70% Rule (EEG 2012 Onward)

Under the Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG), smaller systems were required to cap grid feed-in at 70% of installed capacity, or to accept remote control by the network operator. A 20 kW system capped at 70% could feed a maximum of 14 kW to the grid regardless of actual production. The remaining output was either curtailed or, where battery storage existed, stored for later use. Older systems keep the terms they were connected under, so check the commissioning date.

The yield impact depends on orientation. A south-facing array peaks sharply and loses more to a 70% cap than an east-west array, whose output is spread across more hours. Model your own layout instead of using a rule of thumb.

The Solarspitzengesetz, Effective February 25, 2025

The Solarspitzengesetz (Solar Peak Act) applies to new systems from February 25, 2025. The Bundesnetzagentur (BNetzA) is the regulator to check for current guidance. German guides describe two components, though they disagree on some thresholds, so read the EEG and metering-law text for your system size:

60% feed-in cap for unmetered systems:

• New systems above the threshold (guides cite 2 kW) without a smart meter and remote control device are limited to 60% of installed inverter capacity for grid feed-in
• Once an intelligentes Messsystem (smart meter) and remote control device are installed, the cap is lifted entirely
• Systems under 2 kW are fully exempt, plug-in solar and Balkonkraftwerke are unaffected

Negative-price subsidy suspension:

• During 15-minute intervals when wholesale electricity prices go negative, feed-in subsidy payments are suspended, regardless of system size
• The system can keep producing but receives zero payment for that output interval
• Guides describe a catch-up mechanism that adds suspended intervals to the end of the 20-year subsidy period
• Guides differ on exactly which systems and size bands this applies to, so check the current EEG text

One German guide reports yield losses from the 60% cap of roughly 1% to 9% depending on orientation and storage. Treat that range as indicative and model your own orientation, battery and consumption profile.

For context on Germany’s broader incentive structure, see our guide to solar subsidies and incentives in Germany.

United Kingdom: G98, G99, and DNO Export Constraints

The UK uses engineering recommendations G98 and G99 to classify solar connections by size and govern how export is managed.

G98: Fit and Inform (up to 3.68 kW per phase)

G98 applies to systems with output up to 16A per phase, equivalent to 3.68 kW on a 230V single-phase connection. Under G98:

• Install first, then notify the distribution network operator (DNO) within 28 days
• No pre-approval is required for compliant small systems
• 3.68 kW per phase is the G98 ceiling for the fit-and-inform route

For a standard single-phase UK home, systems up to the G98 limit can use the notify-after route. Three-phase connections are assessed per phase, so up to 11.04 kW in total (3.68 kW per phase) fits G98.

G99: Pre-Approval Required (above 3.68 kW per phase)

G99 applies to any system exporting above 16A per phase. Key differences:

• DNO pre-approval is required before installation
• Timescales depend on the DNO and the network, so ask for the current service standard
• The DNO reviews transformer headroom, voltage rise risk, and network capacity at the local substation
• The DNO can approve the connection with an export constraint below what was applied for

A 6 kW system in a constrained area might receive approval for only 3.68 kW export, effectively the G98 baseline. In congested networks, approvals can take longer and come with conditions that were not in the original design.

G100: Export Limitation Scheme

G100 is the engineering recommendation for export limitation schemes. Where the DNO grants approval subject to a limit, the inverter or an external limiter must hold export to the approved ceiling using certified control equipment.

Zero export in the UK: The UK does not mandate zero export nationally. Some sites accept an export-limited or zero-export connection where the local network cannot take more, so ask the DNO which options it offers.

United States: NEM 3.0, Non-Export Interconnection, and Plug-In Solar

The US has no federal solar export rule. Policies are set by state PUCs and individual utilities. The rules are highly fragmented, what applies in California differs entirely from Texas or Florida.

California NEM 3.0, The Most Consequential Export Policy Change in US History

California’s Net Energy Metering 3.0, formally the net billing tariff, was adopted by the California Public Utilities Commission in Decision D.22-12-056 in December 2022 and applies to applications from April 2023:

• Several sources report the value of exports fell by roughly 75% compared to NEM 2.0
• Exports are valued by time of day using the Avoided Cost Calculator (ACC), so midday exports are worth little and a small number of evening hours are worth much more
• Customers already on NEM 2.0 keep their terms for a legacy period, and the net billing tariff includes its own multi-year lock for new customers. Read the decision for the current lock terms

The financial logic is that a system with battery storage, which captures midday solar and discharges in the evening peak, can earn more per exported kWh than a solar-only system exporting at noon. The tariff was designed to encourage storage.

For solar-only systems in California, midday export earns little under NEM 3.0. That does not mean zero export is required, but it means self-consumption and storage drive the economics for much of the day. The solar yield and financial analysis models these time-varying export rates to show accurate payback under NEM 3.0.

The California Public Utilities Commission publishes the decision and the ACC materials that set export values.

State-by-State Non-Export Interconnection Rules

For systems designed as zero export, most states provide a simplified interconnection pathway:

Rules differ by state and by utility, and several states have changed their non-export provisions in recent years. The table lists the pathways that were reported for each state and the question to ask the utility. Read the utility’s current interconnection tariff before you promise a customer a fast track.

Plug-In Solar: Zero-Export Micro-Systems

Very small plug-in solar systems, generally around 1,200 W or less, plug into a standard outlet and are designed not to export. They are the US counterpart of German Balkonkraftwerke.

• Utah passed legislation in 2025 (HB 340) that allows small plug-in systems with certification, with limited utility involvement
• Other states have considered or passed similar bills, and rules for size limits, certification and utility notice differ by state

The design logic is simple: a micro-system sized to the household base load should not push power back to the grid. Whether a state allows it, and what certification it asks for, is set by that state’s law, so read the statute for the project location.

Japan: Curtailment Rights and the Compensation Cap

Japan does not cap export by kW or percentage. Under its FIT rules the grid operator can curtail a registered system, and compensation applies only beyond a cap. An older law-firm summary of the FIT implementing regulations says operators could curtail solar and wind plants of 500 kW or more with one day’s notice for up to 30 days a year in total without paying compensation. Later reporting describes an hour-based cap of 360 hours a year. The cap depends on the facility’s category and contract, so read the terms that apply to the asset.

How Curtailment Works in Japan

When the grid has more generation than load, which is common on sunny spring and autumn weekends in high-solar areas, the operator sends a remote output-control command. The command can call for full curtailment or a reduced percentage. Systems must be able to receive and execute remote output-control commands as a grid connection requirement.

Curtailment Has Spread

Curtailment began in Kyushu and has spread to most grid areas. The pv magazine report on curtailment reaching Tokyo in March 2026 says curtailment has reached the Tokyo area, described as Japan’s last holdout grid area. Separate reporting said solar and wind curtailment across Japan totaled 1.74 TWh in the first half of 2025, a record for a six-month period. The METI renewable energy policy page is the starting point for official rules and statistics.

Italy, Spain, and Southern Europe: Changing Export Compensation Frameworks

Southern Europe has changed its export compensation rules repeatedly in recent years.

Italy: End of Scambio sul Posto

Italy’s main net metering scheme, Scambio sul Posto (SSP), has closed to new applicants. The dates reported by Italian sources vary, so check the Gestore dei Servizi Energetici (GSE) for the cutoff that applies to your system.

• New systems are no longer eligible for SSP after the closure dates published by GSE
• Existing contracts follow the transition rules in the SSP decree and GSE notices

The replacement is Ritiro Dedicato (RID), or dedicated withdrawal, under which the GSE purchases exported electricity at the market price, with a guaranteed minimum price available for small plants under conditions set by the regulator. Check the current GSE price tables, because both the market price and the minimum change over time.

This guide did not find a national zero-export rule or fixed kW export cap for Italy. Grid connection approval from the network operator is required, so ask it what export it will approve. For the full incentive history and FER 2 Decree details, see our guide to feed-in tariffs for rooftop solar in Italy.

Spain: Autoconsumo Rules and Surplus Compensation

Spain’s Royal Decree 244/2019 established two autoconsumo categories that remain the framework in 2026:

Sin excedentes (without surplus), zero export: The system must prevent injection to the grid, using anti-islanding protection and a real-time power limiter that meets the applicable technical standard (see ITC-BT-40 and UNE 217001). Registration is simpler because no surplus is tracked. It is common for industrial sites and for systems with storage.

Con excedentes (with surplus), export permitted:

• Systems up to 100 kW can use simplified compensation (compensación simplificada), where monthly surplus is credited against the energy term of the bill
• Larger systems sell surplus on the wholesale market, or through a representative, at market prices
• The rules for credits, tolls and registration have been amended since 2019, so check the current Royal Decree text and your distributor’s requirements

Charges on exported energy and the value of surplus both change with regulation and market prices, so a Spanish proposal should show the surplus credit as a range and make self-consumption the base case. See our analysis of residential solar adoption in Spain.

Netherlands and Belgium: The End of Net Metering

Two of Europe’s most solar-active markets have ended or are ending net metering, the mechanism that placed no financial penalty on grid export.

Netherlands: Salderingsregeling Ends December 31, 2026

The Dutch net metering scheme (salderingsregeling) lets solar owners offset exported kWh against imported kWh at the full retail rate. Energy suppliers’ pages report that it ends in one step on 1 January 2027. The supplier pages are not the official law text, so check the government source for your case.

• Until December 31, 2026: Net metering continues
• From 2027 through 2030: Supplier sources report a legal minimum compensation of at least 50% of the net supply tariff for fed-back electricity
• After 2030: Sources disagree or are silent, so treat compensation as market-set until the law text says otherwise

Several Dutch suppliers also charge terugleverkosten (return delivery costs), a fixed monthly fee or per-kWh surcharge for processing returned electricity, and suppliers say they may keep charging after 2027.

Design implication: The economics change sharply from 2027 for every system, so model both periods. Battery storage becomes significantly more attractive after the transition, self-consumption provides much better returns than exports at 50% of the retail rate.

Belgium, Flanders: Prosumer Tariffs and Net Metering’s End

Flanders moved ahead of the Netherlands on ending net metering. The rollout of digital meters ends the net metering arrangement for prosumers who receive one, and exports are now valued at market-linked credits rather than the retail rate.

Under the new system:

• Exported electricity earns a market-based credit, which is well below the retail price that net metering offset
• Capacity-based tariffs charge for peak demand, which can penalize midday solar export without storage
• Wallonia uses a separate scheme with time-of-use pricing for smart-metered low-voltage users

Check VREG (Flanders) and the Walloon regulator for current tariff values before modeling a Belgian project.

For a full overview of European feed-in and compensation policies, see our European solar incentives guide.

China: Self-Consumption Rules for Large C&I Solar

China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) issued new Management Measures for Distributed PV Power Generation Development and Construction in January 2025, and secondary reports put the effective date at 1 May 2025. The IEA PVPS National Survey Report of PV Power Applications in China 2024 says the measures refine how distributed PV is classified, require systems to be observable, measurable, dispatchable and controllable, and mandate self-consumption for large-scale projects. It also says the self-consumption ratio for general commercial and industrial (C&I) distributed PV is set by local authorities.

What the Measures Mean for Export

Reports on the 2024 draft described a split by system size. The final text has to be checked for exact thresholds, so treat the table as the draft framework and confirm it before you quote it to a client.

Where full self-use applies, every installation needs certified export-limiting hardware, and inadvertent export can be a compliance problem. The reason is grid hosting capacity in high-penetration provinces.

The scale of the segment explains the policy attention: the IEA PVPS National Survey Report of PV Power Applications in China 2024 reports 118.18 GW (AC) of distributed PV added in 2024, 43% of China’s 277.57 GW (AC) of new PV capacity.

For EPC companies using solar PV design software on C&I projects in China, the export-limiting configuration has to be in the first layout iteration, not added at the specification stage.

Middle East, Africa, and Emerging Markets: Check the Utility First

In much of the Middle East, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, export is limited by utility approval processes and connection conditions more than by a published kW cap. Always ask the network operator what it will accept for the project location. For compliance detail on African markets, see Africa solar compliance.

Morocco: Limited Surplus Sales

Morocco’s Law 82-21 on self-generation lets self-producers inject surplus into the grid and sell up to 20% of annual output, with the tariff set by the regulator ANRE. A pv magazine report on Morocco self-consumption describes the implementing decree that unlocked the framework. Sources differ on the decree number, the effective date and whether low-voltage installations can inject, so confirm each point with ANRE or the official bulletin. Earlier descriptions of Morocco as a strict zero-export market are out of date.

Saudi Arabia: Approval-Based Export

Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) frameworks allow self-consumption, but export for residential and commercial systems depends on utility approval. Installers commonly design for zero export, but the practice varies by project and by year, so ask SEC for the current rule.

UAE: Mixed Approach by Emirate

Dubai’s DEWA runs a net metering program in which exported kWh offset imported kWh. Other emirates set their own conditions for distributed solar. There is no single federal export policy, so each emirate has to be checked on its own.

South Africa: SSEG Rules

South Africa’s Small-Scale Embedded Generation (SSEG) framework covers small systems connected to municipal and Eskom networks. Credits, registration and tariff treatment vary by distributor, and some municipalities pay differently from others. Ask the distributor for its current SSEG tariff and registration requirements.

India: Net Metering Cap

India’s Electricity (Rights of Consumers) Rules set the national framework. The December 2020 rules provided for net metering up to 10 kW. A June 2021 amendment, summarized by the Electricity (Rights of Consumers) Amendment Rules 2021 summary, raised the net metering allowance to prosumer loads up to 500 kW or the sanctioned load, whichever is lower, with net billing for other loads. Commentators note that state commissions implement the framework, so the binding rule depends on the state regulation. See our guide on 5kW solar panel price in India for residential cost context.

How Export Limits Shape Solar System Design

Export limitation rules are not just regulatory boxes to check, they are a primary input to every system design decision.

System Sizing Under Export Constraints

Under zero export or strict export caps, the financially optimal system size is determined by daytime load profile, not by available roof space or maximum irradiance capture. Adding panels beyond what the site can consume during the day produces generation that is either wasted or must go into storage.

A workable sequence for solar design software in zero-export and export-limited markets:

1. Map the consumption profile by 15-minute intervals across a representative week
2. Identify the daytime consumption floor, the minimum load during peak solar hours
3. Size the array to approach but not exceed that floor plus any battery charging capacity
4. Model curtailment losses for any oversizing above the export cap

In practical terms: a commercial facility with a 50 kW daytime load in a zero-export market should size the array near that load, plus any battery charging capacity, not to the full roof. Oversizing adds capital cost without proportionate energy or financial return.

Battery Storage and Export Limits

Battery storage changes the optimal sizing calculation by acting as a buffer between generation and the export cap. Under Australia’s 5 kW export cap, a 10 kW system with a 10 kWh battery can store midday generation above 5 kW for evening use, improving self-consumption and reducing export loss.

The financial case for battery storage in export-limited markets depends on:

• The size of the gap between peak generation and the export cap
• The value of avoided import (retail electricity rate) vs the value of exports (feed-in rate)
• The daily cycling depth the battery can sustain financially over its warranty life

In markets where export values are low, such as California under NEM 3.0, the Netherlands after 2026, Flanders, and Japan during curtailment periods, the battery case is stronger, but it still has to be checked against battery cost and cycling.

For quantifying this, the generation and financial tool allows you to input a time-of-use tariff, an export cap, a battery size, and a consumption profile to model actual payback under specific market rules.

Inverter Selection and Export Limiting Technology

Three main technical approaches to export limiting exist for grid-connected systems:

Smart inverter self-limiting: Many string inverters can limit their own grid export using real-time CT (current transformer) measurements at the meter point, sometimes with a meter accessory. Which models support it, and which grid codes they are certified to, such as AS/NZS 4777.2 in Australia, VDE-AR-N 4105 in Germany and G98/G99 in the UK, is stated on each manufacturer’s datasheet, so check the specific model.

External export limiter: A standalone device at the grid connection point throttles inverter output via a communication bus (typically SunSpec Modbus). Common in legacy installations or multi-inverter systems where a single control point is needed.

CSIP-AUS / smart grid communication: For South Australia’s flexible export scheme and WA’s Pathway 1, the inverter must support two-way communication with the network operator. CSIP-AUS is the Australian implementation of IEEE 2030.5 (SEP 2.0). Inverters without this capability cannot access flexible export.

For full technical coverage of each option and configuration guidance, see our guide to zero export devices for solar.

The Direction of Export Policy: Dynamic Export and Flexible Limits

Export policy is moving toward smarter restriction. Fixed caps are a blunt instrument. Dynamic export, as run in South Australia, lets systems export as much as the grid can absorb in real time instead of holding a permanent conservative cap.

South Australia as a Working Model

South Australia is the clearest operating example of dynamic export. SA Power Networks reported that more than 88% of eligible customers chose Flexible Exports, and the scheme uses CSIP-AUS, the same communication layer that supports virtual power plant dispatch. Other grid operators are watching schemes like it, but published evidence of what each regulator will adopt is thin, so treat any claim about other countries’ plans as unconfirmed.

What This Means for System Design Today

For EPC firms designing systems that will be operational for 20–25 years:

• Australia: Specify CSIP-AUS capable inverters where the network offers or requires flexible export, as in South Australia.
• Germany: German guides say installing the required smart metering and control equipment lifts the 60% cap. Ask your installer and meter operator what applies to the system size.
• UK: G99 export limits are set by the DNO at approval. A system that stays within G98 (3.68 kW per phase) avoids the approval step and possible constraints.
• California: Design for self-consumption and battery dispatch first. NEM 3.0 export values are higher in evening peak hours than at midday.
• Japan: Model curtailment under the cap that applies to the asset, and test a storage case for high-penetration areas.

The common thread in the markets covered here is that exported electricity is worth less than it was, so the financial optimum is shifting toward self-consumption and storage.

Conclusion

Export control is now common. The markets covered here apply some form of it, from approval-based or zero-export designs to dynamic systems that adjust export in real time.

• Know the local rule before sizing. Export limits are a first-order design constraint. A system designed without the local cap will probably deliver less than projected.
• Model export losses explicitly. Whether the limit is 5 kW in Australia, 60% in Germany, or a Japan-style 30-day curtailment right, any financial projection that ignores the local export rule overstates payback and ROI.
• Specify for flexibility. Inverters with CSIP-AUS or equivalent communication can join dynamic export schemes and virtual power plants where they exist. Ask suppliers for the price difference.

For EPCs working across countries, the next step is to put each project’s local export rule into the design and financial model. You can book a SurgePV demo to see how the generation and financial workflow handles it.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a zero export solar system?

A zero export solar system uses an export limiter or anti-reverse-flow device so no electricity flows back to the grid. All output is used on site or stored in batteries. It is required or common where the network will not accept export, and some owners choose it where export pays very little.

What is Australia’s solar export limit?

There is no single national limit, because each distribution network sets its own. Many residential connections have a fixed limit in the region of 5 kW per phase, while SA Power Networks offers Flexible Exports up to 10 kW per phase from July 2025. Check the network operator’s connection standard for the postcode.

How does Germany’s solar feed-in cap work?

Under the Solarspitzengesetz, new systems from 25 February 2025 without smart metering and remote control are limited to 60% feed-in, and the subsidy pauses when wholesale prices are negative. German guides disagree on some size thresholds, so check the current EEG text for the system size.

What changed with California’s NEM 3.0?

California’s net billing tariff, adopted in Decision D.22-12-056 and applied to applications from April 2023, values exports by time of day. Several sources report export value fell by roughly 75% compared with NEM 2.0, so midday exports earn little and batteries become more attractive.

What is dynamic or flexible export limiting?

Dynamic export limiting lets a system export a variable amount that follows real-time grid conditions instead of a fixed cap. In South Australia the limit can reach 10 kW per phase when the network has room, falls during congestion, and requires a CSIP-AUS capable, internet-connected inverter.

How much energy do you lose with a 5 kW export limit?

For a 10 kW system with a 5 kW limit, SolarQuotes modeled worst-case annual losses of 14% in Adelaide, 14% in Canberra and 13% in Sydney. Those figures assume north-facing panels and no daytime household use, so real losses are likely lower.

Do grid export limits affect solar system sizing?

Yes. Under a hard cap or zero export, panels beyond what the site can use or store during peak generation add cost without adding return. Size to the daytime load plus any battery charging, and put the local export rule into the financial model before quoting.